Flooding persists in Central Asia and Eastern Africa; dryness remains in northern Central America
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16Flooding persists in Central Asia; droughts remain in Southern Africa
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16Droughts remain in Southern Africa, while flooding persists in Eastern Africa
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16Food Assistance Outlook Brief, March 2024
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9Food Assistance Outlook Brief, February 2024
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9Food Assistance Outlook Brief, April 2024
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9Droughts persist in southern Africa while flooding continues in most parts of eastern Africa
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16March 2024 Global Price Watch
- In West Africa, staple food prices showed mixed trends in February. In the Sahel region, prices were stable or declined due to seasonal harvests but remained high due to supply constraints and high demand. Nigeria registered a record annual inflation rate driven by currency depreciation and the lasting effects of reduced fuel subsidies. Looking ahead, prices across the region are expected to rise in March and beyond as household stocks dwindle, demand for Ramadan increases, and transportation costs remain elevated.
- In East Africa, staple food prices declined in most markets in February due to increased seasonal supplies. In Sudan, however, conflict and currency depreciation drove up marketing costs and increased prices for coarse grains. Regional livestock prices were mixed due to varying water and feed availability. Staple prices are expected to increase across the region due to the impacts of currency depreciation and elevated marketing costs. Livestock prices are expected to remain high, driven by increased demand for Ramadan.
- In Southern Africa, staple grain prices increased in several major markets due to seasonal stock declines and high production costs. Zambia and Zimbabwe faced tight supplies and currency weakness, leading to maize price increases. Malawi and DRC, however, saw seasonal price drops for maize due to green harvest supply. Due to the anticipated impacts of the ongoing strong El Niño on maize harvests, seasonal price declines are expected to be muted. Due to higher import and energy costs, inflation will likely accelerate in the coming months.
- In Central America, white maize prices were stable in February. Red bean prices declined for the second consecutive month supported by delayed postrera 2023 harvest and small volumes from the ongoing main season (apante). Black beans prices were stable as staggered and delayed postrera tardia harvest did not compensate for previous local production declines. In Haiti, violence intensified severely disrupting market operations and pressing prices upwards. In Venezuela, monthly inflation continued to ease and the VED marginally appreciated, supporting food price stability in local currency.
- In Central Asia, the export prices of milling wheat in Kazakhstan were stable due to ample supply and declining global prices. The prices of both high -and low-quality rice, and wheat flour remained stable in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Yemen, prices were stable in SBA-areas and mixed in IRG-areas where wheat flour prices were up six percent.
- International staple food markets were sufficiently supplied. Global staple food prices remained relatively stable, despite external disruptions such as shipping delays and farmer protests in Europe. Export prices for wheat, maize, and soybeans continued to decrease, reaching their lowest point in the past two years. Although rice prices softened to reduced trade activity during the Lunar New Year holidays, they remained about a third higher than a year ago.
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15Drought persists in much of southern Africa while heavy rainfall drives flooding in parts of East Africa
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16Many parts of Southern Africa are in drought, while flooding persists in parts of Eastern Africa
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16Drought conditions ongoing in north of Southern Africa while heavy rainfall drives flooding in the east
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16Drought conditions expanding across parts of Southern Africa; flooding persists in Tanzania and Zambia
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16Drought conditions spreading in areas of Southern Africa; flooding persists in Tanzania and Zambia
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16Flooding from heavy rainfall persists in several African countries; abnormally dry conditions worsen in parts of Southern Africa
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Dry conditions worsen in parts of Southern Africa; flooding in areas of Central and East Africa persist
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January 2024 Global Price Watch
- In West Africa, staple food prices in December displayed mixed trends. While coarse grain prices stabilized or slightly decreased in some markets with recent harvests, others remained above average due to localized below-average production and ongoing trade restrictions. In Nigeria, inflation continues its upward trajectory, exacerbated by macroeconomic pressures and currency depreciation. From January onward, these trends are expected to persist, influenced by fluctuating market dynamics and geopolitical factors, potentially exacerbating food insecurity in vulnerable regions.
- In East Africa, Staple food price trends were mixed. Prices increased atypically in Sudan due to conflict-related production, harvest, transport disruptions, and flood-related harvest delays in Somalia. Prices declined in monitored markets in Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, South Sudan, and Ethiopia due to increased supply from the October to December harvest. Livestock prices remained stable due to good rangeland conditions.
- In Southern Africa, maize prices in December increased seasonally, reflecting decreased stock-to-use ratios and regional supply variances. With stable supplies, South Africa saw moderate price increases due to international demand, maintaining lower year-over-year prices. Conversely, countries like Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi faced escalated prices driven by supply shortages, currency devaluation, and energy costs. The outlook for January anticipates further price increases during the lean season, influenced by delayed planting, harvest constraints, and regional demand dynamics amid ongoing economic and climatic challenges.
- In Central America, an improved staple grain supply after the main harvests (primera and postrera) pushed wholesale white maize and red bean prices downward, while black beans remained stable. In Haiti, heightened insecurity constrained market operations and transportation, but food prices remained stable, supported by the recent staple grains harvest. In Venezuela, food prices were stable in VED and eased in USD, tracking exchange rate trends.
- In Central Asia, the export price of low-quality wheat from Kazakhstan declined significantly, while the price of high-quality wheat increased in December 2023. Both high -and low-quality rice and wheat flour prices remained stable in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Prices were also stable in Yemen.
- International markets were sufficiently supplied. Global rice, maize, and wheat prices increased attributed to robust demand, export restrictions, and concerns about the potential impact of El Niño on production in MY2023/24. In contrast, crude oil prices declined due to sluggish demand growth and increasing supply. Despite recent rises in input costs, fertilizer prices remained relatively firm, supported by rebounding demand and tight supplies. Overall, prices were below 2022 levels but above the five-year average.
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Dryness improves in parts of Southern Africa; flooding continues in parts of Eastern Africa
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Heavy rainfall brings relief to dry areas in parts of Southern Africa; causes flooding in Central and East Africa
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Dry conditions improve in parts of Southern Africa; flooding continues in parts of central and east Africa
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Food Assistance Outlook Brief, January 2024
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