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New IFPRI book documents the impacts of Sudan’s conflict and identifies evidence‑based pathways to recovery

The book is being launched today in Cairo on the opening day of the conference "Three Years of Conflict: What the Evidence Tells Us and What Recovery Requires."

The post New IFPRI book documents the impacts of Sudan’s conflict and identifies evidence‑based pathways to recovery appeared first on IFPRI.

Exposure to fertilizer supply and price shocks

Asia

Latin America

Africa

Fertilizer disruptions represent a lagged but potentially substantial transmission channel for acute food insecurity. Fertilizer markets are highly exposed to disruptions stemming from the Middle East due to the region’s central role in global production and export of key inputs, including urea, ammonia, and sulfur. In addition, fertilizer production is energy-intensive, linking fertilizer prices closely to global energy markets. As a result, the current state of affairs introduces three primary risks:

• Physical supply chain disruptions, particularly for countries reliant on Gulf exports;
• Structural production capacity loss, whereby destroyed or damaged facilities cannot be restored within the current cropping cycle regardless of conflict trajectory;
• Rising global fertilizer prices, driven by higher energy costs and market uncertainty.

However, the level of risk to each country is not uniform. Countries with high dependence on Gulf fertilizer imports and intensive fertilizer use face the greatest risk of systemic production shortfalls. This interaction should also be considered against the net contribution of domestic production vs imports to total annual needs. The figure below captures that the vulnerability of a country to fertilizer-related production risks are driven by these two dimensions:

• Exposure to supply disruptions due to dependence on fertilizer imports from Gulf exporters based on historical trade data;
• Sensitivity of production systems to this specific supply disruption, proxied by fertilizer application intensity (e.g., nitrogen use per hectare).

Countries with both high fertilizer import dependence from the Gulf and high application rates face the greatest systemic risk, as they are simultaneously exposed to both physical disruption to Gulf trade flows and structural loss of production capacity (availability shock) and rising global fertilizer prices (price shock). However, countries with low application rates are not insulated from risk. In these contexts, smallholder farmers already operate with minimal input use, so even modest price increases can further reduce fertilizer application, with potential for disproportionate impacts on yields and household food availability.

Figure 1

Fertilizer dependent production

Source: FAO

Asia

Asian countries are among the most exposed globally due to both high reliance on Gulf fertilizer exports and intensive use of fertilizer in staple crop production systems. Several countries exhibit dual-axis vulnerability, including Bangladesh and Pakistan, which have high fertilizer import dependence from the Gulf and very high nitrogen application rates. Fertilizer application for rice and maize occurs on a rolling basis between January and August (whereas wheat has already concluded). 

Latin America

In Latin America, fertilizer-related risks are most likely to be driven by price transmission rather than physical supply shortages. In Central America, dependence on fertilizer sourced from the Gulf is low, but the main input procurement window (April–June) coincides with rising fertilizer and fuel costs. Meanwhile, Brazil – a leading global exporter of maize and other commodities – does source up to a fifth of its fertilizer from the Gulf and has high nitrogen application rates. The fertilizer application window for maize is further out however, in September-December. Long-term increases in fertilizer prices, even if supply disruptions from the Gulf ease over time, hold potential to inflate production costs and transmit higher prices to global food markets in 2027.

In 2022, rising global fertilizer prices, driven by COVID-19-related supply chain disruptions, high energy costs, and further exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine war, resulted in reduced fertilizer use across Latin America and the Caribbean, particularly in Central America, relative to cultivated area.

Africa

Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, fertilizer application rates are relatively low; however, vulnerability stems from either high dependence on fertilizer sourced from the Gulf and/or high input price sensitivity among smallholder farmers. Increases in fertilizer prices may further reduce already limited fertilizer use and lower already low crop yields. 

Several countries face more direct exposure to supply disruptions from the Gulf according to the FAO’s analysis, including South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. For East Africa, March-April (first season in bimodal areas) and May-August (main season in unimodal areas, including Ethiopia) are key planting and fertilizer application windows. For Southern Africa, fertilizer for the current 2025/26 season was largely procured prior to the conflict; however, the August-November 2026 procurement window represents a critical exposure point for the next production season if elevated prices and supply disruptions persist.

tfinstuen@fews.net Mon, 04/13/2026 - 15:56

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In Artemisa, the country’s agricultural heartland, sanctions and fuel shortages have made a tough life almost impossible

Abraham Rodríguez stares at the corn furrows he must plough before the end of the day. It is not even noon in Artemisa, Cuba, but the sun beats down hard and he’s already tired: working the land is a tough job. He has done it for almost half his life, since he was 13 and his mother got a divorce. He is turning 26 this year.

Farming has always been hard, he says, but now it is almost impossible to sustain. “I make 1,200 pesos (£1.80) a day, so I have to work two days to buy a bottle of oil.”

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‘Development in reverse’ taking place involving rising energy and food costs and weaker economic growth

More than 32 million people worldwide could be plunged into poverty by the economic fallout from the Iran war, with developing countries expected to be hit hardest.

In a report issued amid doubts over a fragile ceasefire, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said the world was facing a “triple shock” involving energy, food and weaker economic growth.

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Could the Iran war pose lasting risks to global food security? (Al Jazeera)

Avinash Kishore, IFPRI senior research fellow in New Delhi, was interviewed for the Al Jazeera's "Inside Story" program on the Iran war risks to global food security.

The post Could the Iran war pose lasting risks to global food security? (Al Jazeera) appeared first on IFPRI.

The Iran war’s agriculture shock isn’t over yet (Foreign Policy)

Foreign Policy quotes IFPRI's Joseph Glauber who notes that energy inputs are built into food costs at nearly every step, from production and processing through transportation and retail.

The post The Iran war’s agriculture shock isn’t over yet (Foreign Policy) appeared first on IFPRI.

Gas shortages and rising food prices mean many who came to the capital for work cannot afford to eat. Going home is now their only option

At 9am on a Saturday, 35-year-old Raju Prasad rushes through Anand Vihar railway station in Delhi, a heavy bag slung over his shoulder. Beside him, his wife clutches their youngest daughter with one arm and a white plastic bucket with the other. Their three other children trail behind – one dragging a trolley bag, the others holding on to whatever little they can manage. With Prasad’s brother, the family of seven is leaving for Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh.

They had moved to India’s capital nine months ago. The couple worked as ragpickers and were paid about 500 rupees a day (about £4), working long 10-hour shifts. But any dreams of building a more secure future in Delhi and sending their children to school have been lost, as rising food costs and the impact of the Middle East crisis on fuel availability and prices have meant the past few weeks have been a fight for basic survival. Now they are moving back to their village.

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La Niña is present. Flooding risks are high in areas of Eastern Africa, Yemen, Central America, Hispaniola, and Northern South America, while drought persists in western Angola and southern Madagascar. tfinstuen@fews.net Wed, 04/08/2026 - 20:22

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Integrating nutrient supplements and WASH into agriculture programs improves child micronutrient status in Burkina Faso

New IFPRI-led research finds that adding nutrient supplements and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) interventions into gender-sensitive agriculture programs can significantly improve young children’s iron and vitamin A status, especially when support starts at 6 months of age and covers the whole complementary feeding period until 23 months of age.

The post Integrating nutrient supplements and WASH into agriculture programs improves child micronutrient status in Burkina Faso appeared first on IFPRI.

How farmers are rising to a fertilizer shortfall (DW)

DW spoke with IFPRI's Joseph Glauber and Avinash Kishore to discuss what farmers around the world are doing to save their crops in a situation of a global fertilizer shortage sparked by the war in Iran.

The post How farmers are rising to a fertilizer shortfall (DW) appeared first on IFPRI.

World Health Day 2026: Trade wars reshape nutrition security opportunities (Nutrition Insight)

In a World Health Day feature on nutrition and global trade, Nutrition Insight highlights analysis from IFPRI’s Purnima Menon on how global trade disruptions, conflicts, and economic shocks affect food affordability, diet diversity, and nutrition security.

The post World Health Day 2026: Trade wars reshape nutrition security opportunities (Nutrition Insight) appeared first on IFPRI.

Aid cuts mean the ethnically-cleansed refugees from Myanmar face a return to cooking over toxic flames, or keeping children out of school to spend all day scouring for firewood

Four years ago the US recognised the genocide of my people, and nations around the world came to our aid. Today, we ask the world to reaffirm that commitment. What do we ask for that will save lives, the local habitat and even dollars for Rohingya refugees?

Cooking gas.

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The Guardian columnist speaks about why we need to tackle global food insecurity

“There are lots of different components to food security,” the Guardian columnist George Monbiot tells Nosheen Iqbal. “If you are totally dependent on the production within your own borders, well, one bad harvest can throw you into insecurity.

“So, a large part of our national food security, and this applies to many countries around the world, is now highly dependent on global trade. It means that if you have harvest failure in one part of the world, then the gap can be filled by production elsewhere.”

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Ripple effects of oil and fertiliser shortage felt by farmers in India and Sri Lanka despite governments saying there is enough stock to go round

Gurvinder Singh never thought the war in Iran would touch his quiet corner of Punjab.

Yet looking out over his smallholding, where he alternates between wheat and rice crops in the state known as India’s breadbasket, the 52-year-old farmer can barely think of anything else. His anxiety over a conflict playing out thousands of miles away is crippling as he fears what will come of this season’s rice crop.

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The Gulf built a fertilizer superpower. Now it’s under strain (WIRED Middle East)

WIRED.me quotes Charlotte Hebebrand in the article focusing on the the Gulf fertilizer industry—and why the ongoing escalating conflict is putting global food systems under strain.

The post The Gulf built a fertilizer superpower. Now it’s under strain (WIRED Middle East) appeared first on IFPRI.

Effects of Iran’s blockade will depend on how long crisis lasts as disruption ripples through supply chains

• Middle East crisis – live updates

The closure of the strait of Hormuz, the crucial oil and gas shipping route that has been blocked by Iran since the US-Israeli attacks began, is having ripple effects around the world, with most industries already grappling with rising energy costs. If the strait is not reopened, transport blockages across the Middle East could cause significant shocks to food and medicine supplies.

No one knows how long the wider conflict will last, but governments are panicking about the implications. Yvette Cooper, the UK foreign secretary, is hosting a meeting with 35 other countries on Thursday to discuss reopening the strait. Here is what could happen in the UK if the blockade drags on.

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La Niña is present. Drought settles in southern Madagascar, while abnormal dryness emerges in northern South America. Meanwhile, abnormal heat prevails in Central Asia. tfinstuen@fews.net Wed, 04/01/2026 - 19:07

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March 2026 Price Watch

Key Messages

Key Messages

• In West Africa, staple food prices across the Sahel were stable or slightly increased in February, reflecting seasonal supply tightening, and remained markedly below last year’s levels across most markets. Prices in conflict-affected areas of Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger persisted at sharply elevated levels due to insecurity, refugee inflows, and high transport costs. In Nigeria, staple prices showed mixed trends, with maize and millet rising with higher demand during Ramadan, even as annual inflation declined for an eleventh consecutive month. In CAR, prices remained above last year’s and the five-year average, driven by insecurity, high fuel costs, and logistical constraints (Page 3).
• In East Africa, staple food prices remained broadly stable in February, supported by recent harvests and cross-border trade flows. However, prices remain elevated across most markets compared to last year due to weak local currencies, high fuel and transport costs, and persistent market disruptions. In Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and parts of Ethiopia, exceptionally high price levels constrain household purchasing power, limiting typical seasonal price variation (Page 4).
• In Southern Africa, maize markets continue to reflect abundant supply conditions and favorable harvest prospects, with prices declining in major producing countries. South Africa’s white maize prices were 41 percent below last year due to strong production and export requirements; Mozambique recorded 35 percent annual declines. Seasonal increases emerged in Tanzania and Zambia as strategic reserves purchased record volumes. Regional inflation trends softened in February; however, central banks are unlikely to cut interest rates due to expected upward pressure on energy prices (Page 5).
• In Central America, white maize prices rose monthly and remained above average in El Salvador and Honduras as the region approached the lean season. Red bean prices declined marginally due to the delayed postrera 2025 harvest, while black beans were stable, supported by above-average imports. In Haiti, insecurity continued to disrupt activities in downtown Port-au-Prince. Local food prices increased seasonally while import prices were generally stable. In Venezuela, monthly inflation eased, but annual inflation remained elevated. Prices in local currency rose at a slower pace than last month due to the strengthening of the VED on the parallel market (Page 6). 
• In the Middle East, Europe, and Asia, staple food price dynamics showed mixed trends. In Syria, Ramadan demand and structural market constraints drove price increases, while staple prices declined in Lebanon due to currency stability and adequate stocks. Prices in Gaza remained far below the extreme peaks observed last year, with fresh food remaining limited. In the West Bank, prices increased amid Ramadan demand. In Yemen, prices in IRG-controlled areas remained broadly stable, with increases in cooking gas in Socotra markets. SBA-controlled areas saw increases linked to additional taxes and Ramadan demand. Staple prices remained stable in Afghanistan and Central Asia, supported by steady imports, adequate supply, and lower fuel costs (Page 7). 
• International markets showed mixed trends in February, with maize prices rising 3.5 percent driven by record global production offset by tightening stocks, while rice prices were broadly stable and remained well below last year’s levels. Wheat prices increased 3.3 percent amid winterkill concerns and logistics constraints. Crude oil rose to 71 USD/bbl on geopolitical tensions. Fertilizer prices increased, with urea up 10.3 percent and DAP up 4.1 percent amid continued Chinese export restrictions and upside risk to Gulf natural gas output (Page 2). 

hwellman@fews.net Tue, 03/31/2026 - 18:10

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The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food prices (AP)

AP quotes IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber on how the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are tightening global fertilizer supplies. He warns farmers may switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops or apply less fertilizer, reducing yields.

The post The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food prices (AP) appeared first on IFPRI.

FEWS NET Weather and Agriculture Outlook, March 2026 tfinstuen@fews.net Thu, 03/26/2026 - 20:50

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